Morning Grain Comments, 11/13/2015

Friday, November 13, 2015


Volume had exploded with Tuesday’s report but it’s been lethargic ever since, particularly in soybeans overnight, with the bulls unable to keep building from post-report contract lows. The trade needs seasonally strong soy export sales to build any semblance of momentum, but they fell off a cliff last week and are expected to lag below the 1 MMT mark again today. The Korean Feed Association bought 60k tonnes of South American corn for April 10 arrival, at $193/tonne C&F.

FranceAgriMer reported the country’s soft wheat planting campaign at 95% complete this week, up from 90% last week, with emergence of the crop at 79%, versus 63% a week ago.

The European Union granted export licenses for 401k tonnes of soft wheat this week, bringing the total since July 1 to 7.5 MMT– still down 31% vs LY.

Monday’s October NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 161.0 million bushels, which would mark the largest October figure on record, up from 126.7 mbu in September and 158.0 mbu last October. Trade estimates ranged from 158.5 mbu to 164.8 mbu.

 

Weekly DOE total fuel ethanol production ramped up again last week, adding 13,000 barrels per day to 982k bpd on the week ending November 6; that’s 36k bpd ahead of the comparable week last year as production ramps up about 1-2 weeks ahead of last season. Cumulative output since 9/1 now stands at 955k bpd, 43k bpd ahead of last year’s pace and even ahead of last year’s final figure—why did the USDA reduce ‘15/16 corn use for ethanol this week again?

 

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