Morning Grain Comments, 11/12/2015

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Corn and beans tried to start off the overnight session higher last night, but were unable to get up off the mat; we are seeing something closer to competitiveness from U.S. feed grain export prices, but that's a long way from there to increased shipments...

South Korean feedmaker NOFI bought 63k tonnes of optional-origin corn at just under $190/tonne C&F for April 1 arrival; they did pass on two other tenders for up to 69k tonnes of corn and 65k tonnes of feed wheat. The country's KOCOPIA bought 55k tonnes of U.S. corn at $194/tonne C&F for Mar.

Japan bought 119k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender as scheduled, including 67k from the U.S., 32k from Canada, and 20k AUS.

Egypt's GASC yesterday bought 120k tonnes of wheat for Dec 11-20 shipment, including 60k each from France and Russia, at $212/tonne C&F.

Iranian officials announced they would stop importing wheat (at this point) due to strong domestic production, and export 300k tonnes of durum as well.

The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated 2015/16 Argentine commercial-use corn production at 20.2 MMT yesterday, down 22% from last season; they pegged '15/16 wheat output at 9.4 MMT, up from 9.3 MMT previously. This estimate is if the newly-elected president were to leave export policies unhanged; however, both leading candidates are falling all over each other to promise larger soybean export tax cuts than the other at this point, with both planning to wipe out 20-23% corn and wheat tariffs immediately.

FranceAgriMer raised their 2015/16 ending wheat stocks estimate this month, from 4.8 to 5.2 million tonnes; exports within the E.U. were cut from 7.6 to 7.4 MMT this month, with exports outside the Union steady at 11.5 MMT.


Today's charts show corn and soybean yield changes in the November USDA S&D reports and then from there to the final figures, over the last 20+ years. The "big crops get bigger" cliché doesn't hold up well, at least from this point on—of the last six record crop estimates in November (from 1999 onward), only two have increased from there on out an only one was larger than a +0.2 bpa rise. That was in 2009, and that +1.5 bpa rise followed a –1.3 bpa Nov drop.



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