Morning Grain Comments, 11/05/2015

Thursday, November 05, 2015


Soybeans are putting in the best rebound pre-export sales report, as is often the case in recent weeks—however that's barely pushed the most-traded bean contracts above level-par on the overnight session... Iraq made no purchase in their tender for at least 50k tonnes of hard wheat.

Japan bought nearly 130k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 49k from the U.S., 56k from Canada, and 25k from AUS.

Egypt will change the way they offer subsidies for locally-grown wheat, effectively cutting the price in half to try to eliminate smuggling of foreign wheat in to procure government prices that ran at around half the global level.

The U.S. FAO's world food price index rose nearly 4% in October, to 162 points—the largest increase since July 2012, though food prices currently stand 16% below year-ago levels.

Private analysts The Linn Group yesterday pegged U.S. corn yields at 165.6 bushels per acre, with production at 13.334 billion bushels—that's over 220 mbu below the current USDA estimate. Soybean yields came in at 48.0 bpa with output at 3.942 bln bu, over 50 mbu above the government; their harvested acreage figures are below for the USDA projections for both crops.

Argentine grain trade is slowing to a crawl this month, with the Rosario Exchange reportedly handling half the normal soybean volumes for this time of year and virtually no wheat; farmers are hanging on tight to stocks with Presidential elections coming in just a few weeks, and both leading candidates promising to reduce export taxes and/or quotas if elected.

 



Total fuel ethanol production rose to 969,000 barrels per day last week (ending October 30th), up 25k bpd from the previous week and 40k above the comparable week last year (the previous record output for this date). Last year's production went on to peak at 992k bpd in mid-December and then again at 994k bpd in mid-June. Cumulative output rose back over the 950k bpd mark through 8 1/2 weeks of 2015/16, up a sharp 43k bpd from last year's early pace.

 

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