Morning Grain Comments, 11/04/2015

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

The bulls have managed to weather the initial wave of stronger November private crop estimates, but buying enthusiasm remains slow across the futures market despite cash bids being forced to inch higher...

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23k tonnes of U.S. corn (at $206/tonne C&F) and 12k tonnes of U.S. beans (at $384/t C&F) this morning, for Jan-Feb; the country's millers tendered for 92k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat for Dec-Jan.

Jordan has tendered again for 100k tonnes of optional-origin hard milling wheat, after going without a purchase on similar tenders since the start of Oct.

Brazilian soybean crushing association Abiove yesterday pegged 2015/16 soybean production at 98.6 MMT, up from 97.8 MMT last month, but still below their government, the USDA, and more optimistic private estimates which are at the 100 MMT mark or greater. Abiove also raised their '15/16 soybean export estimate by a million tonnes, to 53.8 MMT—that's still below the USDA's 56.45 MMT (which was up almost 2 MMT in the Oct S&D).

Brazil exported 2.59 MMT of soybeans in Oct 2015, down from 3.7 MMT in Sept but well above 741k tonnes last Oct. Ethanol exports of 259 million liters beat out 173 mln last month and 101 mln last year. Meanwhile, corn exports of 5.55 MMT were a record total by more than 1.6 MMT (compared to Oct 2013), up from 3.5 MMT in Sept and 3.2 MMT a year ago; local analysts say the Oct number was overstated due to Aug and Sept carryovers, but those prior months' figures would have then been new highs—it's a record export stretch regardless. The analysts say Nov exports could reach nearly 6 MMT.

Private analysts Informa yesterday estimated the U.S. corn yield at 170.1 bushels per acre, up from 168.4 bpa last month, and above current 168.0 bpa estimates from both the FCStone and the USDA. Their production figure at 13.72 bln bu stands over 160 mbu above the government. Bean yields came in at 47.9 bpa, up from 47.2 bpa last month for both them and the USDA, and above FCStone's 47.5 bpa Nov figure as well. Informa pegged soybean production at 3.95 bln bu, 64 mbu above the USDA Oct figure. In their Nov Crop Report, Informa increased 2015 soy output by 3 MMT in Argentina (to 59.0 MMT) and 1 MMT in Brazil (to 101.0 MMT), with ARG corn down 1.5 MMT to 18.5 MMT while BRZ corn rose 700k tonnes to 81.8 MMT.

November CBOT deliveries: soybeans 103 contracts, next trade date 10/23


Informa managed to top the corn yield estimates list (at least between they, INTL FCStone, and the USDA) for the third straight month, since the USDA outdid them and everyone else with that 168.8 bpa figure in August. However, most were at 175.0 bpa or above last November (with the USDA at 174.2 bpa) before the official yield got reduced to 171.0 bpa. Informa matched last year's Nov bean estimate this month at 47.9 bpa—they wound up 0.4 bpa high in '14.



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