Morning Grain Comments, 11/03/2015

Tuesday, November 03, 2015


Grain activity was sluggish overnight—at least, for the bulls, unwilling to seriously test recent lows/support levels, but definitely unable to= garner fundamental support early on in November. Informa is next up today.

Taiwan Sugar Corp has tendered for up to 23k tonnes of U.S. corn and 12k tonnes of U.S. soybeans, for Jan-Feb shipment.

Iran said the lifting of some sanctions on the country's shipping group could cut wheat import costs by up to 20-30%; they are also looking to barter some of their domestically-produced durum excess for imported milling wheat. The USDA has Iran wheat imports at 4.0 MMT in '15/16, the lowest in four years.

Russia's Ag Ministry yesterday estimated the country's 2015 grain crop at 102 million tonnes, down from 105 MMT last year, and slightly above previous 100-101 MMT ideas. Meanwhile, private consultants SovEcon reported Russia's grain exports at 3.7 MMT in October, down from nearly 4.0 MMT in September but up from 3.5 MMT in Oct 2014. Cumulative July-Oct grain exports of 13.3 MMT remain behind last year's 15.1 MMT four-month pace.

The USDA reported corn used for ethanol at 427.5 million bushels in September, down from 446.9 mbu in August, with 1.907 MMT of DDG's produced in Sept, down from 1.961 MMT in Aug. The USDA fats and oils report showed 4.04 MMT of beans crushed in Sept, down from 4.34 MMT in Aug.

The U.S. corn harvest advanced ten points on the week ending last Sunday, to 85% complete—that remains ahead of 62% last year and the 79% five-year average. The soybean harvest rose 5% to 92% done, up from 81% LY and the 88% 5YA. Winter wheat ratings rose 2% this week to 49% good/excellent, still below 59% LY and the 51% 5YA, with planting & emergence of the crop remaining slightly below last year and the 5YA at 88% & 72%, respectively.

INTL FCStone yesterday pegged the U.S. corn yield at 168.0 bushels per acre, up a bushel from Oct and even with the USDA. Soybean yields at 47.5 bpa were up from 46.9 bpa in Oct, and stand 0.3 bpa above the current USDA


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