Morning Grain Comments, 10/27/2015

Tuesday, October 27, 2015


The grains most lapsed from yesterday's enthusiasm overnight, but beans found a bid in the evening and have steadily rallied since; physical grain trade is clogging up as the massive harvest comes to a close, and the futures market may be on hold ahead of any Fed action this week...

South Korea's MFG bought around 115k tonnes of soybean meal this morning, likely from either South America or China, set for May delivery.

The European Union's crop monitoring service increased their corn yield estimate again this month, to 6.47 tonnes per hectare (103.1 bu per acre); that's up from 6.43 t/ha (102.4 bpa) previously but still 20% below last year and 8% behind the 5YA. Soft wheat yields were also raised slightly this month to 5.86 t/ha (87.1 bpa), still down 5% vs LY but now 3.4% above the 5YA figure.

The national corn harvest reached 75% complete as of Sunday night, up from 59% last week, 44% last year, and the 68% five year average, as well as one point above the average trade guess. Soybean harvest rose ten points this week to 87% complete, up from 68% LY and the 80% 5YA, and also a point above the trade estimate. Winter wheat planting and emerge remained at or near normal and LY levels at 83% and 62% this week, respectively.

 



Soybean export inspections seasonally ramped up for the seventh straight week on the seven days ending 10/22, to over 98 million bushels; that was up from 87.0 mbu the previous week and 83.2 mbu on the comparable week last year. '14/15 inspections went on to clear the 100 mbu mark this next week, then peak out at a record near 115 mbu three weeks from now. Current cumulative inspections of over 350 mbu are the highest pace for this week by over 20 mbu.

 

cummlativesoy

Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

Market Intelligence Free Trial