Morning Grain Comments, 10/20/2015

Tuesday, October 20, 2015


The grains are green across the board but rarely has a bouncenhad less momentum behind it; technical trouble remains, and it will take untiln the weekend to see if changing weather conditions have any market effect...

Russian wheat is the lowest offered in Iraq's tender for at least 50k tonnes of hard wheat (closing on Thursday) at $254/tonne C&F; that is only slightly lower than U.S. wheat at $262.50/tonne C&F, with AUS and CAN at $262/t .

Japan is looking for 134k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including over 99k tonnes from the U.S. and 35k from Canada.

Jordan tendered yesterday for 100k tonnes of hard wheat and 100k tonnes of barley—that was a re-tender after failing to buy the same amounts last week.

The country finally re-sold its 50k tonnes of Polish wheat at just $150/tonne, after it had been rejected back in February by its quality control agency.

Kazakhstan's Ag Ministry reported the 2015 grain harvest at 19.6 MMT as yesterday, up over 25% from last year's pace and 99.8% complete with yields above LY as well; the Ag Min had expected total harvest at 17.5 MMT.

 

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Britain's Far Ministry estimated this year's wheat crop at 16.17 MMT, up slightly from last month's estimate but still down over 2% from last year, despite higher yields—the highest yield (8.8 tonnes/ha) in the past 25 years.

Ukraine's Ag Ministry yesterday pegged the country's 2015 corn crop at 22.9 MMT, down from 28.5 MMT in 2014, with just over half the crop harvested.

The Buenos Aires Exchange estimated Argentine soy plantings at 19.8 million hectares (48.9 mln ac) in their first estimate of the year, down 1% vs LY.

The national corn harvest came in right in line with expectations at 59% complete as of Sunday night, up from 42% the previous week, 30% last year, and the 54% five-year average pace. The soybean harvest was a couple points shy
of estimates at 77% done, up from 62% LW, 51% LY, and the 68% 5YA pace. Winter wheat planting and emergence remained very much in line with last year and 5YA figures at 76% and 49% this week, respectively.


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