Morning Grain Comments, 10/19/2015

Monday, October 19, 2015


The grains started off weak last night and haven't done much since—beans continue to hang in the best but even they were rejected at $9, and the bulls will hope for a big soy inspections number again this morning.

South Korean millers purchased wheat in multiple tenders overnight, with KFMC buying 61k tonnes of wheat for Feb-March shipment, origins split fairly evenly between the U.S. and Australia; the country's Daehan mills also bought 50k tonnes from Australia for April shipment, with CJ buying 61k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat for February 2016 delivery.

The Chief Economist from ABARES says he expects Australia's current wheat crop to come in around 24 MMT, lower than previously expected and not far above last year's harvest; the USDA had raised their Aussie wheat production estimate for 2015/16 by a million tonnes to 27 MMT this month.

Mato Grosso's agricultural institute Imea on Friday estimated the state's soybean planting pace at 14% , up from 6% the previous week and 9% last year.

Private analysts Informa on Friday pegged 2016 U.S. corn acreage at 90.8 million, down 100k from last month but still 2.4 mln ac above 2015; soybean plantings came in at 83.9 million acres, down 340k from Informa's Sept figure but still 700k above 2015. All wheat acreage in 2016 was seen at 54.0 mln, down 713k from last month and 613k below the 2015 figure.

Friday afternoon's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds acting generally as the trade had expected for once, dropping 25.7k net corn on the week along with –5.2k net Chi wheat, while adding nearly 18k net beans, 9.2k net meal, and 4.9k net oil. Producers and merchants added 21.2k net corn on the seven days to 10/13, along with 7.3k Chi wheat, while liquidating 15.9k net beans, 15.6k net meal, and nearly 7k net bean oil contracts.


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