Morning Livestock Report, 10/15/2015

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Cattle futures trading firmer in the nearbys and weaker in the deferreds again yesterday, with the industry growing increasingly confident in another sharply higher cash cattle trade on tap this week. The Oct-Dec spread which almost traded all the way to -$9.00 early this month is now all the way back to -$3.67 as spreads and flat price futures recover just about as fast as they'd plunged in late September. We did see some packer bids shown at $125 yesterday, but with Oct futures at almost $134 one has to think we're looking at a $131+ market to develop by week's end. Note there were no physical deliveries or retenders posted last night for the first time this delivery period, perhaps a sign of confidence from producers that basis has corrected itself, and perhaps a sign that we no longer have a glut of unsold/unspoken for cattle. The beef carcass cutout indexes continue to move sharply higher, while trimmings specifically are still very much a mixed bag. Beef 90s were down another 2 cents to fresh lows yesterday, while beef 50s were up 4 cents to fresh highs.

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