Morning Grain Reports, 10/15/2015

Thursday, October 15, 2015

The grains held steady for most of the overnight, with CZ trying to get back to $3.80 this morning and failing - it's in no-man's land on the charts. Midwest harvest pressure rages on for at least a few more days...

South Korean corn processors are looking for 165k tonnes of corn for Feb 1 arrival today—one cargo from the U.S., one from ARG/BRZ, one optional.

Egypt's GASC is looking for wheat for November 21-30 shipment today.

Ukraine's Ag Ministry and traders' unions failed to sign an agreement on the amount of grain available for export in 2015/16—it is intended to be 36 MMT

Strategie Grains increased their 2015 E.U. soft wheat harvest estimate by another 2 MMT this month, to a record 149.5 MMT (above last year's 149.1 MMT). Output rose in the Baltics, France, Germany, and the U.K. '15/16 ending wheat stocks rose 2 MMT as well to 18.4 MMT, up 4.9 MMT from the already-plentiful 2014/15 carryout. Corn output was also up 200k tonnes this month to 57.6 MMT—still 24% below LY. Total 2016 cereals area was initially pegged at 57.4 million hectares, up from 57.2 mln ha in 2015, with soft wheat down slightly to 24.0 mln ha, and corn acreage steady with LY.

French farm office FranceAgriMer estimated France's soft wheat exports at 11.5 MMT in 2015/16, up from 11.0 MMT last month and now slightly above last year's 11.4 MMT tally. 2015 soft wheat production was also raised, from 40.7 to a record 41.0 MMT, in line with official current government estimates

Local Brazilian analysts Datagro yesterday estimated the country's ethanol production in 2015/16 at a record 30.45 billion liters, up from 28.49 billion in 2014/15; they also said they expect Brazil to ship 240 million gallons of ethanol to California alone in calendar 2016, thanks to higher premiums in the state; total Jan-Sept 2015 U.S. ethanol imports from Brazil stand at 575 mln.

September NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 129.24 million bushels this morning, down from 135.3 mbu in August but well above 99.97 mbu last September, and the largest Sept figure since 2007. Trade estimates range from 125.0-132.7 million bushels.


Today's charts show price action of the spot December corn and November soybean contracts for the rest of the month of October, since 1990. The action of both commodities has been a mixed bag historically, but corn has shown a tendency towards the high side over this span in four out of the last five years, with beans rising in ten of the last 13. CZ4 rallied from Oct 1 into expiration last year, with SX4 doing to the same to the tune of a +$1.80/bu from Oct to mid-Nov.


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