Morning Grain Comments, 10/13/2015

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Dec corn is in danger on the charts this morning but soybeans continue to hold up the grain complex; Chinese bean demand is still running strong despite S.A. perennially gaining a larger export share, while the USDA keeps pumping up crush estimates—Sept crush is on tap Thursday.

Japan is looking for 117k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular tender this week, including 64k from the U.S., 31k form Canada, and 22k from AUS.

South Korea is seeking 207k tonnes of optional-origin corn for March-April.

Jordan is trying for a third time to sell a 50k-tonne cargo of Polish wheat that it had itself rejected for quality; previous tenders failed on Oct 4 and Oct 11.

Chinese customs data showed September soybean imports at 7.26 million tonnes, down slightly from 7.78 MMT in August, but still up 44% from 5.03 MMT last September. Cumulative Jan-Sept imports stand at 59.65 MMT, up over 13% from last year's nine-month pace; Oct-Sep imports wound up at a record high 78.3 MMT, up 11% from last season's 70.36 MMT tally. O-N-D soy imports are expected to average around 6 MMT, according to traders.

Morocco yesterday announced a cut in their soft wheat import duty, from 75% to 50%, starting November 1, in order to ensure adequate supply; the move comes after a record grain harvest of 11 MMT in 2015, including 5.2 MMT of soft wheat. The USDA interestingly has 2015/16 Moroccan wheat output at 8.0 MMT, with imports down nearly one-third to 2.8 MMT.


Today's chart shows wheat exports from the main global suppliers since 2000, along with current USDA estimates for the 2015/16 marketing year. Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Turkey) wheat exports are seen rising rapidly for the third straight year this season to a record 42.5 MMT, nearly doubling in the last three years and nearly four times the figure from just five years ago. U.S. exports are seen at their lowest number since 1971/1972!



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