Morning Livestock Report, 10/08/2015

Thursday, October 08, 2015

The cattle markets traded sharply higher for the second consecutive session yesterday, led by the nearby Oct contract which was up $4.22. That marks a $9+ rally off the lows since late last week which has relieved some of the financial and psychological pressures, but we all now ask whether this is real or just some kind of short-covering bounce in an otherwise bear market?? The boxed beef markets remain soft and this week's cash cattle trade is anyone's guess. Packers have bought a few cattle in the North at $120, up from a $117 average there last week, but still WAY below Oct futures which now trade at $129+. This futures rally continues to tempt additional deliveries and indeed we saw 7 new loads delivered last night, and all 28 prior loads have been retendered...again. Note August beef import/export data released yesterday showed a continued trend for lax exports and massive imports. YTD exports are down 12% vs last year, while imports are up 32% and still far exceeding the +17% pace currently estimated by the USDA. The U.S. has been a net importer for 18 months

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