Morning Grain Comments, 10/01/2015

Thursday, October 01, 2015


Corn and soy were contained below yesterday's report highs but wheat continued to surge ahead—the trade needs to see some confirmation of drought-breaking rains in Australia and the FSU before the rally slows.

Russia's Prime Minister yesterday officially signed an order to cut the country's wheat export tax starting on October 1; the new tax should effectively drop the duty by around $15 per tonne at current exchange rates and prices.

They still expect 2015 grain production at around 100 MMT, down 5 MMT from last year's near-record level. Nearly 95 MMT has been harvested so far, from 88% of the total planted area, while 69% of the 2016 winter grain crophas been planted. The country's Ag Minister said Russia's export potential would rise to the 40 MMT mark by 2025, with production nearing 130 MMT.

The USDA is expected to report total August U.S. soy crush at 142.0 mln bu today, in their first report in four years since Census numbers went offline. Estimates range from 140.9-142.7 mbu, with NOPA at 135.3 mbu in August.









state1

Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

Market Intelligence Free Trial