Morning Grain Comments, 09/30/2015

Wednesday, September 30, 2015


Matt Zeller

Trade estimates aren't indicating any big surprises in today's stocks report but the market will always be on high alert for these quarterly releases, with a tendency towards bearish corn figures in the past; at any rate, the focus is sure to shift back to a swift harvest campaign shortly thereafter...

China issued import quotas for 2016 wheat, corn, and rice today, with the wheat amount set at 9.636 MMT and corn at 7.2 MMT.

The European Commission raised their 2015 soft wheat crop estimate from 140.6 to 144.6 MMT this month—still below last year's 148.7 MMT record— with corn down from 58.7 to 58.4 MMT. Barley (59.0 MMT this month) and rapeseed (21.1 MMT) output figures were increased as well.

Egypt's GASC is reportedly considering raising their protein requirement for wheat imports from 12.0 to 12.5%; current specs require a 12% protein content for Black Sea wheat and 11.5% for French and U.S. SRW.

South Africa increased their 2015 corn crop estimate from 9.84 to 9.94 MMT, compared to trade expectations for a similarly-sized decline; that's still down around a third from 2014 and the smallest corn harvest since 2007.

The USDA is expected to report total August U.S. soy crush at 142.0 million bushels, in their first report in four years since Census numbers went offline. Estimates range from 140.9-142.7 mbu, with NOPA at 135.3 mbu in August.


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