Morning Grain Comments, 09/28/2015

Monday, September 28, 2015

The grains look good on the charts to open the week, despite SX falling from an initial spike; harvest is really rolling but weather forecasts do look quite a bit less beneficial on that front, coming out of the weekend...

Ukraine's Ag Min reported grain exports since July 1 at 8.86 MMT, including 4.8 MMT of wheat, 1.4 MMT corn, and 2.7 MMT barley, with another 344k tonnes loaded and ready to leave in the coming days.

A Realtors Land Institute semiannual survey found Iowa cropland values declining 3.7% from March to September 2015; coupled with a decline in the previous six months, values dropped 11.3% from Sept 1 2014 to Sept 1 2015.

Friday afternoon's USDA Hogs & Pigs Report showed all U.S. hogs and pigs at 104.0% of last year, above the average 103.5% trade estimate; breeding hogs came in at 101.0% of LY, above the 100.2% estimate, while marketings at 104.0% of LY were also above the average 103.8% guess.

Friday afternoon's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds losing only 558 net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (9/22), compared to trade expectations for a 14k net loss; losses were larger across the soybean complex and closer to daily trade estimates, while Chicago wheat added near 5k net on the week. Meanwhile, producers and merchants added exactly 3k net corn on the week, along with 9.2k net beans, 17.6k net meal, and 1.7k net oil, while liquidating just over 4k net Chi wheat.

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