Morning Grain Comments, 09/25/2015

Friday, September 25, 2015

Nov beans completely dominated the overnight session with a steady rise throughout; China is ceremonially committed for exports this year but paces remain slow thus far. More interesting going into next week's Sept stocks report is an old-crop carryout that just continues to tighten...

South Korean millers bought 23k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Dec-Jan shipment, while Taiwan bought 89k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Nov-Dec shipment.

China sold less than 36k tonnes of the 5.4 MMT state stocks on hand in this week's reserve auction, the lowest percentage so far this year...

Grain lobby Coceral cut their '15 E.U. corn estimate from 65.7 MMT in June to 59.5 MMT this month, while raising soft wheat from 140.6 to 148.2 MMT.

FranceAgriMer estimated the country's corn harvest at 4% done this week, up from 1% last week and 0% last year, with ratings up a point to 56% g/ex.

A Brazilian industry group expects the country's 2015 wheat imports to fall to 5.0 MMT, down from 5.78 MMT in 2014, due to larger domestic crop and lower consumption. The USDA has BRZ imports at 7.0 MMT in 2015/16. Cumulative Jan-Aug imports stood at 3.3 MMT, down 20% from the same period last year; ARG accounted for 2.7 MMT of that, with the US at 300k.

The International Grains Council pegged '15/16 ending global grain stocks at 456 MMT, up 9 MMT from last month and a 29-year high; world wheat output was raised to a record 727 MMT, up from 720 MMT both last month and last year. Global corn output was cut by 1 MMT to 967 MMT, down from 1.005 billion LY, with stocks up 1 MMT to 199 MMT (vs 203 MMT LY).

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