Morning Grain Comments, 09/22/2015

Tuesday, September 22, 2015


Nov beans have been on the run since the open last night, following yesterday's improved crop ratings, and amidst a weather forecast that looks like it will allow a rapid soybean dry-down and harvest; early yield returns on the crop are running consistently better than corn as well...

Iran has reportedly canceled wheat and barley import duties that had been imposed in July, and were set to last for at least a year; they gave no official reason for the cancellation, and it comes after a government statement in August that the country would not need to import wheat this season. The USDA has Iran importing 4.0 MMT in 2015/16, down from 6.3 MMT last season.

India's Farm Minister sees winter grain production at 132.8 MMT in 2015/16, up from 130.75 MMT a year ago due to improving monsoon rains; winter crops account for about half the country's total grain production.

The European Union crop monitoring service MARS yesterday increased their 2015 E.U. corn yield estimate, from 6.40 to 6.43 tonnes per hectare (102.44 bushels per acre), following yield reductions in several prior months; that's still down over 20% from last year and 8.5% below the 5YA figure. Soft wheat yields were left unchanged at 5.81 t/ha (86.4 bpa) this month.

National corn ratings were left steady this week at 68% good/excellent, still below 74% last year but above the 54% five-year average rating; 94% of the crop had dented while 53% was rated as mature (up from 40% LY but below
the 56% 5YA). Corn harvest doubled to 10% done as of Sunday night, above 7% LY but below the 15% 5YA. Soybean ratings recovered the two points they lost last week to 63% g/ex, below 71% LY but safely above the 54%
5YA; 56% of the crop dropped leaves (up from 42% LY and the 50% 5YA) with the initial harvest report there at 7%, even with the 5YA pace and above 3% on this date last season. Winter wheat planting rose ten points to 19% complete this week, still slightly below 23% LY and the 20% 5YA pace.


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