Morning Grain Comments, 09/21/2015

Monday, September 21, 2015


Matt Zeller

Beans turned the tables overnight against a continued downtrend— and against a rallying U.S. dollar—with SX dominating volume, and positive demand data from China (even though it's more positive for South America). It will be tough for the grains to get much going as it stands this week, with harvest starting to gain steam amid favorable Midwest weather...

Egypt's GASC bought 230k tonnes of wheat for October 21-31 delivery on Friday morning, including 115k tonnes from Russia, 55k from Ukraine, and 60k from France. C&F prices averaged $191/tonne.

The latest S.A. labor strike started late last week and came from Brazil's federal agricultural agents; they're responsible for approving export certificates and it could cause issues for corn exports in the near future. About 70% of national agents are on strike, with 100% striking in the main port of Santos.

China imported 794k tonnes of DDG's in August, down from July's record 1.1 MMT, but still 26% above last August; cumulative Jan-Aug DDG imports stand at 3.55 MMT, still down 9% from last year's pace. August soybean imports of 7.8 MMT were up 29% YoY, with Jan-Aug imports of 52.4 MMT up nearly 10% from last year; imports from the U.S. are down 2% at 17.0 MMT, with BRZ up over 10% to 27.9 MMT and ARG up 46% to 5.3 MMT thus far.

Friday afternoon's USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed U.S. cattle on feed as of September 1 at 102.7% of last year, below the average 103.7% guess and the entire 103.4-104.0% trade range; August placements also fell way short of expectations at 94.6%, with marketings close to the guess at 93.9%.

Friday's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds adding just shy of 20k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (9/15); that was still well short of where daily trade estimates had that number pegged. Soybeans lost over 8k net in that category, compared to trade estimates for a 5k gain on the week; activity was fairly minimal and unsurprising across the rest of the grain complex. Producers and merchants dropped 39,132 net corn contracts on the week, with beans up 6.3k and meal -12.7k in that category.


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